Big Tech reports into a market that has stopped rewarding AI spending on faith, with the Fed, $100 oil and next week's midterms crowding the same five days.
As of October 26, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET. Stock prices are Friday, October 23 closes unless otherwise noted. All event times are Eastern.
Meta Platforms ($META) beat on revenue last Wednesday and still fell 6.98% the next day. Its third-quarter capital spending was larger than the cash its business generated, free cash flow turned negative, and it announced a new class of non-voting shares it can use to raise money. That reaction is the backdrop for this week.
Alphabet ($GOOGL) and Microsoft ($MSFT) report Wednesday after the close, a few hours after the Fed's decision. Amazon ($AMZN) follows Thursday. All three are likely to beat on revenue, and you've already seen that a beat is not the whole test anymore. The questions now are how much they plan to spend, how they plan to pay for it, and when the spending starts paying back.
The market's leadership has already started to shift. Over the past two weeks, chip stocks, AI cloud providers and crypto-linked names have lagged, while cybersecurity, parts of software and energy have held up or rallied. This week's reports will test whether that rotation has further to run.
What to know this week
- Wednesday is the pressure point. The Fed decides at 2:00 p.m. with a press conference at 2:30, then Alphabet, Microsoft, T-Mobile and ServiceNow report after the close.
- The AI question has moved from demand to financing. Meta's spending outran its operating cash flow, and CoreWeave's bond yields have climbed into the teens. Watch capex GuidanceGuidance is forward-looking financial projections that a company's management provides for upcoming periods — typically covering expected revenue, earnings, or margins — and the market's reaction is often driven more by guidance than by theRead definition → and funding plans as closely as revenue.
- Thursday morning stacks GDP, PCE inflation and jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., in the middle of Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Caterpillar EarningsAn earnings report is the quarterly financial disclosure a public company files with the SEC, revealing revenue, earnings per share (EPS), profit margins, and forward guidance — it's the most significant regular catalyst for individual stocRead definition →, with Amazon after the close.
- Oil is a live risk in both directions. WTI closed Friday at $103.27 and Brent at $116.72. On Sunday, President Trump said there would be no strike on Iran that day, and oil eased in early trading.
- Leadership is rotating. The software ETF $IGV rose 6.0% last week while the semiconductor ETF $SMH fell 2.3%, extending a 12.6% slide since October 9.
- The midterm elections are next Tuesday, November 3. Expect positioning around that date to start showing up late in the week.
The week ahead, day by day
Keep the release time and the call time separate. Several of this week's biggest reports land after the close, so the first reaction will happen in thin After-Hours TradingTrading that occurs after the regular market session closes at 4:00 PM ET, typically available from 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET. After-hours volume is usually thin, bid-ask spreads are wider, and price moves can be more dramatic and less reliableRead definition →, and the call can change it before the next open.
The week ahead, October 26 to 30
All times ET (UTC-4)Monday, October 26
First carrier to report since the SpaceX cell-site news.
Chip design, AI hardware supply chain and steel demand.
Tuesday, October 27
Aerospace, freight, consumer staples and tower demand.
Business equipment spending.
Housing demand with mortgage rates near 7.4%.
Consumer spending, retail trading activity and storage demand.
Memory pricing and AI demand, before Wednesday's U.S. open.
Wednesday, October 28
Power equipment and data center infrastructure.
Capital structure of the largest corporate bitcoin holder.
No projections this meeting; tone on December is the focus.
Capex, cloud growth and how the spending is funded.
Telecom competition, software demand and chip equipment.
Thursday, October 29
Drug demand, card spending, machinery and LNG exports.
Growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge in one window.
Expected to hold at 2.50%.
AWS and capex, chips, memory and crypto activity.
Friday, October 30
Expected to hold at 1.25%; watch the yen.
First big-oil report with crude trading above $100.
Energy profits and large-cap biotech.
Wage pressure, a key input for the Fed.
Last session of October; Apple and Palantir report Monday, November 2.
Calendar sources: BEA release schedule, BLS release schedule, Census durable goods schedule, SK hynix earnings notice.
All week and unscheduled
The biggest unscheduled risk is Iran. U.S. media have reported that military planners drew up a target list for a possible new strike, and Iran has said it could hit Gulf oil facilities, undersea cables and data centers if attacked. Trump has said he won't strike before the November 3 elections, but the statement on Sunday covered only that day.
Two other stories could move stocks with no warning: further details on SpaceX's talks to lease cell sites for a possible fourth wireless network, and any fallout from the "PHP2Shell" security flaws that put cybersecurity names in demand last week.
Priority stocks at a glance
Some of these stocks have a report this week. Others are still working through a big move from last week. Keep the two groups apart when you plan Monday, because the first group has a known time and the second doesn't.
Priority stocks at a glance
As of October 26, 2026, 2:00 a.m. ET; prices through October 23Capex above operating cash flow; new non-voting share class
Reported October 21Fell 6.98% October 22; down 9.4% for the week.
Q3 results, capex and funding
October 28 after close; call 4:30 p.m.Down 9.5% from its October 13 close going in.
Fiscal Q1 results, Azure and capex
October 28 after close; call 5:30 p.m.Roughly flat for the week while peers fell.
Q3 results, AWS and capex
October 29 after close; call 5:00 p.m.Guided Q3 sales to $197 billion to $202 billion.
Q3 results after a five-session climb
October 28 after close; call 5:00 p.m.Up 12.0% for the week as software recovered.
Demand for security after PHP2Shell flaws
Following October 23 moveFriday +8.25%, closing near the session high.
Q3 results after SpaceX cell-site report
October 28 after close; call 4:30 p.m.Friday -7.71%; Verizon reports Monday first.
Debt and financing concerns
OngoingDown 33.9% since October 9.
Q3 results as crude trades above $100
October 30 before open; call 9:30 a.m.Friday +2.79% as energy hit a record.
Melanoma vaccine data after early leak
Following weekend ESMO presentationFell 17.57% October 22 on heavy VolumeVolume is the total number of shares (or contracts) traded during a given time period — it's the primary confirmation tool for all price action, because a price move accompanied by high volume indicates genuine market participation, while tRead definition →.
The market entering the week
Week at a glance
October 23, 2026 regular-session closes; changes are weekly, October 16 to October 23The weekly numbers hide a rough Thursday and Friday. The Nasdaq had its biggest one-day drop since June on Thursday after Meta and Lam Research ($LRCX) reports. On Friday the Dow fell 652.82 points, its worst day in two months, as selling spread into consumer staples, utilities and healthcare, sectors that usually hold up when tech sells off.
Breadth was weak underneath. By midday Friday, declining NYSE issues outnumbered advancers nearly 2 to 1, and the Nasdaq showed 299 new 52-week lows against 61 new highs. Small caps were the exception: the Russell 2000 gained 2.0% for the week.
The VIX, which measures expected S and P 500 volatility from options prices, closed Friday at 19.45. That's up from 15.21 on October 12, though slightly below the 19.99 it hit on October 16.
The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 5.00% on Friday after briefly dipping below 5% on Thursday for the first time in a month. The two-year yield was 4.65% on October 22. Thirty-year mortgage rates have climbed to about 7.4%. Ten-year series, two-year series
Here's the sector picture in one line: energy hit a record high Friday, software rebounded, chips kept sliding. Third-quarter S and P 500 earnings are on track to rise more than 32% from a year ago, according to LSEG data, so the selling isn't about weak profits. It's about what investors are willing to pay for future AI returns.
If you want the background on why a 5% 10-year yield matters so much for growth stocks, this guide covers it: what a 5% 10-year Treasury yield means for day traders.
The Fed, inflation and global central banks
Wednesday: a likely hold, with December in focus
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, its first hike since 2023. Markets don't expect a second move this week. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a hike at about 9%, while fed funds futures priced roughly an 80% chance of a hike at the December meeting.
This meeting has no new projections or dot plot, so the statement wording and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference carry the whole message. Listen for how he describes energy-driven inflation. If he treats $100 oil as a temporary shock, the market may hear patience. If he links it to broader price pressure, December hike odds could firm up.
The inflation backdrop makes that call difficult. September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, and producer prices jumped 1.3% in a single month. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped in October to near a record low.
Here's the practical problem for you. Alphabet and Microsoft report about two hours after the press conference ends. A hawkish surprise at 2:30 could move rates and tech stocks before those reports come out, which makes it harder to read what the earnings themselves did to each stock.
Thursday: GDP and PCE in the same minute
At 8:30 a.m. Thursday, the government releases its first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September's personal income report, which includes PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure. Weekly jobless claims arrive at the same time.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated third-quarter growth at 3.5% as of October 20, after 2.2% in the second quarter. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast points to core PCE of 3.1% from a year earlier, up from 3.0%, and headline PCE of 3.6%. Initial claims were 194,000 in the latest week.
Strong growth with firmer inflation would make a December hike easier to justify. Read the core number before reacting to the headline, since energy is lifting the headline more than anything else.
Friday's Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. gives a quarterly read on wage growth. Wage pressure is what turns an oil shock into a longer inflation problem, so this report matters more than usual.
Global central banks
The Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand both decide Wednesday, with markets pricing high odds of hikes at each. The ECB is expected to hold at 2.50% Thursday, and the Bank of Japan is expected to hold at 1.25% Friday.
Japan is worth a look. The Nikkei fell 4.0% last week and the yen weakened to about 156.8 per dollar, which raises Japan's cost of dollar-priced oil. A surprise from the Bank of Japan can spill into U.S. stocks through currency trades, as this guide explains: the yen carry trade unwind.
Stocks to watch
$META: the reaction that set the tone
Meta reported October 21. Revenue rose 26% to $64.6 billion, above its own forecast range. The stock still fell 6.98% to $648.85 the next day on 40.3 million shares, about twice its recent daily volume, and slipped another 0.96% Friday to $642.62.
The reason was in the cash flow statement. Third-quarter capital spending of $34.9 billion exceeded operating cash flow of $32.8 billion, leaving free cash flow at about negative $2.1 billion. Meta narrowed its 2026 capex guidance to $135 billion to $145 billion and gave no 2027 figure beyond saying it will keep "investing aggressively." Meta results
Meta also announced a non-voting Class C share, distributed one-for-one to existing holders, which it says it may use to raise capital, pay employees or fund acquisitions. Long-term debt rose to $80.9 billion from $58.7 billion at the end of 2025.
This week, $META is less about its own news and more about whether Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon get the same treatment. If their reports draw a better reaction, Meta's selloff may start to look specific to Meta. If they get punished too, you're looking at a market-wide shift in how AI spending is valued.
$GOOGL: weak going in
Alphabet reports Wednesday after the close, with the call at 4:30 p.m. The stock has fallen 9.5% from its October 13 close to $320.21, including a 3.15% drop on October 22 when Meta's report hit the group.
The funding question is especially relevant here. In June, Alphabet announced plans to raise about $80 billion through stock offerings, a private placement and an at-the-market program, which lets a company sell shares gradually at market prices. That program was expected to begin in the third quarter. This report may show how much stock was sold and what 2027 capex looks like.
A stock that's already down into a report can bounce if the news is less bad than feared. But Meta's beat-and-sell reaction shows the first move after hours doesn't always hold. Give the call room to change the picture, especially any comments on 2027 spending.
$MSFT: steady while peers slid
Microsoft reports its fiscal first quarter Wednesday after the close, with the call at 5:30 p.m., an hour after Alphabet's. The stock dipped 0.86% for the week to $524.51, holding up far better than Meta or Alphabet.
That relative calm sets a high bar. Azure growth and capex guidance are the numbers to watch, along with any comment on how much of its AI capacity comes from outside providers. CoreWeave's backlog includes deals with Microsoft, so comments about third-party capacity could move the neocloud names too.
Holding up well into a report can work against a stock. If the market expected Microsoft to be the safe one, a merely in-line quarter could draw selling. A strong Azure number with a measured capex plan would challenge the idea that every hyperscaler is overspending.
$AMZN: guidance gives you a baseline
Amazon reports Thursday after the close, with the call at 5:00 p.m. The company guided third-quarter net sales to $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income to $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, so you have clear numbers to compare against.
The stock fell 4.57% on October 22 on 48.2 million shares, about 1.2 times its recent average, and closed the week at $248.00. AWS growth and capex will get the most attention. Thursday's report also lands after a full day of GDP, PCE and Lilly news, and after both other hyperscalers have spoken.
That order matters. By Thursday evening, the market will already have formed a view from Alphabet and Microsoft. Amazon's reaction will tell you whether that view holds or whether it was overdone.
$NOW: software's comeback gets a test
ServiceNow rose for five straight sessions last week, up 12.0% to $158.96, as software stocks recovered from the October 16 selloff. Some of that move came with no single company announcement behind it, so treat it as sector money returning rather than a confirmed new catalyst.
It reports Wednesday after the close, with the call at 5:00 p.m., in the same window as Alphabet and Microsoft. Subscription growth and any comments on how AI products are selling will matter most.
After a run like that, an ordinary quarter might not be enough. Strong guidance would support the idea that money is moving from AI hardware into software. A soft outlook would suggest last week's rebound was mostly a relief bounce.
$CRWD: a security scare turned into buying
CrowdStrike gained 8.25% Friday to $257.57, finishing just below the session high on about 1.3 times its recent daily volume. It finished the week up 13.3%. Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) rose 7.22% Friday and 11.3% for the week.
The trigger was "PHP2Shell," a pair of critical flaws in PHP, the programming language behind a large share of websites. Technical details leaked October 20, which forced an emergency fix ahead of the planned disclosure. CrowdStrike published guidance on protecting customers, and reports of disrupted government websites added to demand for security names. CrowdStrike blog
The other side of this story: both stocks fell more than 7% on October 16, when cybersecurity names sold off with the wider AI trade despite healthy demand. A security headline can drive a burst of buying, but the move needs to hold once the news cycle cools. Fortinet ($FTNT) reports Wednesday after the close and will give the group its next real data point.
$TMUS: the carriers face a new competitor
T-Mobile fell 7.71% Friday to $146.54, and AT and T ($T) dropped more than 6%, after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX ($SPCX) is in talks for access to at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites, including with Crown Castle ($CCI). No agreement has been announced.
This builds on the spectrum deal that hit carriers earlier this month. Verizon ($VZ) reports Monday before the open, so you'll hear from one carrier before T-Mobile reports Wednesday after the close, with the call at 4:30 p.m.
Listen for customer additions, pricing and any direct comments on a satellite-backed competitor. Management can't settle a threat that hasn't launched yet, but a confident subscriber outlook would ease some of the pressure. More cautious commentary would suggest the market's worry has some basis.
$CRWV: the financing stress point
CoreWeave fell 2.46% Friday to $54.24 and has lost 33.9% since October 9. It's the clearest example of the funding worry hanging over this week.
On October 14, a chart of CoreWeave bond yields topping 15% spread on social media, and the stock fell 15.46% that day. Oracle ($ORCL) closed 8.8% lower on the same day because of its own heavy borrowing for data centers. S and P Global rates CoreWeave's debt "B," a speculative grade. Nvidia ($NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia doesn't need to backstop CoreWeave because its finances are improving, and the stock rose 5.9% the next day before giving it back.
CoreWeave has no scheduled report this week, but Microsoft's and Amazon's capacity commentary could move it sharply either way. A stock with this much volatility can bounce hard, and a short-lived bounce shouldn't be mistaken for a fix to the financing question.
$XOM: big-oil profits with crude above $100
Exxon Mobil reports Friday, with results around 6:30 a.m. and the call at 9:30 a.m. Chevron ($CVX) reports the same morning. The stock rose 2.79% Friday to $183.21 as the S and P 500 energy sector hit a record high.
The backdrop is unusual. WTI rose 3.8% Friday to $103.27, and Brent closed at $116.72, its highest since April, on fears of renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. Higher prices help production profits, but refining margins, hedging and output disruptions can complicate the picture.
Energy stocks have been the market's shelter, so the risk runs both ways. A strong report with a confident outlook could extend the trade. Any sign of de-escalation with Iran before Friday could pull oil and energy stocks lower, whatever Exxon's numbers say.
$MRNA: a leak changed the timing
Moderna fell 17.57% on October 22 to $202.63 on 49.5 million shares, after trading as low as $180.80. It slipped another 1.25% Friday to $200.10, down 18.6% from its October 21 close.
The full late-stage data for its personalized melanoma vaccine with Merck ($MRK) appeared online before the planned presentation at the ESMO medical conference. The combination reduced the risk of recurrence or death compared with Merck's Keytruda alone, but the benefit was smaller than in an earlier, smaller trial, and investors had hoped for more.
The formal presentation was scheduled for the weekend, so Monday is the first session to react to the full discussion, including how doctors and analysts at the meeting read the results. Watch whether the stock steadies above last week's low or keeps sliding as the details sink in. Merck reports its own results Thursday before the open.
Earnings and company events beyond the big names
Several other reports this week connect to the same themes. Here's what each one adds:
- Memory chips: SK hynix ($SKHY) reports Tuesday around 8:00 p.m. ET, which is Wednesday morning in Seoul, and Sandisk ($SNDK) reports Thursday after the close. Sandisk fell 4.7% for the week to $1,238.03; SK hynix ended almost unchanged at $137.02 after an 8.07% drop on October 22. SK hynix notice
- Chip equipment: Lam Research fell 9.8% on October 22 after warning that supply constraints limited its December-quarter outlook, even after a record quarter. KLA ($KLAC) reports Wednesday after the close.
- Towers: Crown Castle already reported on October 21 and raised its full-year outlook slightly, with no mention of SpaceX. Its 9.06% Friday gain came from the cell-site report. American Tower ($AMT) reports Tuesday before the open. Crown Castle results
- Retail trading and crypto: Robinhood ($HOOD) reports Tuesday after the close, down 3.8% last week to $95.07. Coinbase ($COIN) and Strategy ($MSTR) report Thursday after the close. Strategy also holds a preferred shareholder vote Wednesday at 10:00 a.m.
- Consumer and industrials: Boeing ($BA), UPS ($UPS) and Coca-Cola ($KO) report Tuesday before the open, Visa ($V) Tuesday after the close, and Caterpillar ($CAT) and Mastercard ($MA) Thursday before the open.
- Healthcare: Eli Lilly ($LLY) reports Thursday before the open, with the call at 10:00 a.m. AbbVie ($ABBV) and Regeneron ($REGN) report Friday before the open.
- Power and infrastructure: GE Vernova ($GEV) and Vertiv ($VRT) report Wednesday before the open, a useful read on data center power demand before the hyperscalers speak.
Broader weekly radar
These names are worth tracking, but each one carries a caveat that kept it off the priority list.
- $PANW: Palo Alto Networks moved with CrowdStrike, up 11.3% for the week to $380.55. It has no report this week, so its next move likely depends on whether security demand stays in the headlines.
- $PLTR: Palantir entered correction territory in the October 16 software selloff. It reports Monday, November 2, so this week's software earnings may shape the mood going into that report.
- $LNG: Cheniere Energy rose 4.06% Friday to $298.67, its highest close of the month. It reports Thursday before the open, with the call at 11:00 a.m.
- $NVDA: Nvidia fell 4.40% on October 22 and closed the week at $210.96. It doesn't report this week, but hyperscaler capex guidance feeds straight into its demand outlook.
- $ORCL: Oracle has dropped 11.9% since October 13 to $126.16. Its large AI backlog keeps it relevant, but so does the borrowing needed to build for it.
- $SPCX: SpaceX rose 7.79% on October 21 after reporting a $4.4 billion quarterly profit, then fell 9.14% the next day. That's a useful reminder that a strong first reaction can reverse quickly.
- $BE: Bloom Energy fell 11.24% Friday to $193.30 despite record revenue and a raised forecast, because the quarter came with negative cash flow. It's another example of the market focusing on cash over growth.
- $CVNA: Carvana reports Wednesday after the close, with the call at 5:30 p.m. It drifted 1.8% lower for the week to $57.81 and has fallen 9.3% since October 9.
- Bitcoin and $IBIT: Bitcoin closed Saturday at $80,770, its lowest since September 17, and touched $79,107 during the weekend. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $773.5 million of outflows Thursday and Friday.
- Treasury ETFs such as $TLT: If stocks keep rotating toward safety, long-dated Treasury ETFs will show it. Wednesday's Fed tone and Thursday's PCE number are the biggest tests for bond prices this week.
Oil, Iran and the midterms
The war involving the U.S., Israel and Iran began in late February and is now in its eighth month. On Sunday, Trump told Fox News he has "a decision to make" between finishing military action and making a deal, then said there would be no strike that day. The U.S. has moved a third aircraft carrier group toward the region.
Iran has offered to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. sanctions are lifted first. Officials have warned that the period between the election and the new Congress taking office could be especially tense.
For you, oil is the transmission channel. Higher crude helps energy producers and hurts airlines, transport and consumer stocks, and it feeds directly into the inflation numbers the Fed is watching. A sudden drop on diplomatic news would hit the energy trade just as fast.
The midterms are November 3, the Tuesday after this week. Bets are growing that Democrats will take control of Congress. For background on how election results can gap stocks overnight, see how midterm elections move the stock market.
Prepare for the busiest window of the season
About one-third of S and P 500 companies report this week. The heaviest stretch runs from Wednesday's 2:00 p.m. Fed decision through Thursday night's Amazon call. Plan which reports you actually need to follow, and leave room to change your view once management speaks.
When you're checking a stock before the open, look at the real-time chart, news and volume together. Trade Ideas offers a free Stock Info page that shows those details for any ticker in one place.
