Tuesday's October CPIThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a monthly U.S. government report measuring the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services — it's the most closely watched inflation indicator in the market.Read definition → lands two sessions after the Nasdaq's worst day since April 2025, while chip stocks look for a floor and Cisco, Applied Materials, CoreWeave and Take-Two report into the bruise.
As of November 8, 2026, 11:30 p.m. ET. Stock prices are Friday, November 6 closes unless otherwise noted. Options implied moves are as of November 6. All event times are Eastern.
Week at a glance
November 6, 2026 regular-session closes; changes are weekly, October 30 to November 6In 30 Seconds
- Chip stocks are trying to repair a historic hit: on Thursday, November 5, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 12%, its biggest one-day drop since 2020, as investors priced in tougher rules for AI data centers after the Democratic midterm sweep.
- Tuesday's October CPI at 8:30 a.m. is the week's main macro event, and it arrives with markets already leaning toward a December Fed hike after October payrolls jumped 165,000 against a 62,000 forecast.
- Expect monthly CPI changes but not the usual annual rates for most series, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected October 2025 prices during last year's shutdown.
- EarningsAn earnings report is the quarterly financial disclosure a public company files with the SEC, revealing revenue, earnings per share (EPS), profit margins, and forward guidance — it's the most significant regular catalyst for individual stocRead definition → test the AI build-out from three angles: CoreWeave ($CRWV) Tuesday after the close, then Cisco ($CSCO) and Applied Materials ($AMAT) Thursday after the close, with options pricing about a 21% move in CoreWeave and 10% in Applied Materials.
- Take-Two ($TTWO) holds its last earnings call before Grand Theft Auto VI launches on November 19, after its stock rose 13% last week while the Nasdaq fell 3.4%.
- Wednesday is Veterans Day: stocks trade normally, the bond market is closed.
Priority Stocks at a Glance
Four of these names have earnings on the calendar this week, so you know the exact hour their risk arrives. The other four are digesting last week's unscheduled shock, and they trade on continuous order flow and headlines. Plan the two groups differently.
Priority stocks at a glance
As of Nov 8, 2026, 11:30 p.m. ET; prices through Nov 6AI sentiment anchor after a 9.3% drop on Nov 5
All weekLevel: ResistanceResistance is a price level where selling pressure has historically overcome buying pressure, causing price to stall, reverse, or consolidate — it's the ceiling where supply enters the market and where breakout traders watch for either a coRead definition → $194.90 / SupportSupport is a price level where buying pressure has historically overcome selling pressure, causing price to stop declining and reverse — it's the floor where demand enters the market, and when it holds, it's a potential long entry; when it Read definition → $181.46
Sets the tone for the whole chip complex at the open
17.5% Thursday drop; Taiwan plant work paused
All weekLevel: Resistance $724.80 / Support $650.00
Widest daily ranges on the list; size accordingly
17.3% Thursday drop, 11% Friday rebound
All weekLevel: Resistance $466.07 / Support $433.30
Does Friday's bounce hold or FadeTo fade a move is to trade against it: selling into a rally or buying into a drop, on the expectation that the move will stall and reverse.Read definition →?
Q3 earnings, before the open
Mon, Nov 9Level: Resistance $263.40 / Support $231.30
Power demand read after the data center backlash
Q2 FY2027 earnings, after the close; call 4:30 p.m.
Mon, Nov 9Level: Resistance $217.70 / Support $209.72
Last investor update before GTA VI on Nov 19
Q3 earnings, after the close; call 5:00 p.m.
Tue, Nov 10Level: Resistance $47.70 / Support $40.58
Options price about a ±21% move
Q1 FY2027 earnings, after the close; call 4:30 p.m.
Thu, Nov 12Level: Resistance $97.52 / Support $93.35
Closed Friday at its lowest level since at least late August
Q4 FY2026 earnings, after the close; call 4:30 p.m.
Thu, Nov 12Level: Resistance $348.71 / Support $316.95
Options price about a ±10.4% move
Week at a Glance: Economic and Earnings Calendar
Keep the release time and the call time separate. Most of this week's important reports land after the close, so the first reaction happens in thin after-hours trading, and the conference call can reverse it before the next open.
Weekly Economic Calendar
All times ET (UTC-5)Monday, November 9
First big power producer to report since the election raised questions about data center construction.
Final scheduled investor update before Grand Theft Auto VI launches on November 19.
High implied moves for momentum traders: ±15.4% for TTD and RKLB, ±19.2% for ASTS, ±21.5% for LCID.
Tuesday, November 10
The week's top macro event and one of the last inflation reads before the Fed's December decision.
Options price moves of 12.8% to 16.1%.
AI cloud backlog, financing costs and capex plans, with a ±21.2% implied move.
Wednesday, November 11
Stock exchanges open on a normal schedule; the bond market and federal offices are closed, so Treasury yields barely update.
Thursday, November 12
Weekly check on layoffs after a strong October payrolls report.
First quarter of a fiscal-year forecast that calls for $72.2 billion to $73.4 billion in revenue.
Chip equipment demand read after the worst semiconductor day since 2020.
Friday, November 13
September PPI jumped 1.3% on the month; a second hot print would add to December hike pressure.
Key earnings reports this week
As of November 6, 2026| Report | Est. EPS | Est. revenue | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|
CEG Constellation EnergyMon, Nov 9 · before open | $3.90 | $8.72B | ±8.0% |
TTWO Take-Two InteractiveMon, Nov 9 · after close | $0.97 | $1.61B | ±9.1% |
CRWV CoreWeaveTue, Nov 10 · after close | -$1.57 (GAAP) | $3.52B | ±21.2% |
CSCO Cisco SystemsThu, Nov 12 · after close | $1.32 | $18.1B | ±6.4% (Oct 27) |
AMAT Applied MaterialsThu, Nov 12 · after close | $4.06 | $10.30B | ±10.4% |
Live Risks and Unscheduled Catalysts
The biggest unscheduled risk is policy talk about AI data centers. Last week's selloff started with fear that Democrats, now in control of both chambers of Congress and several statehouses, will slow data center permits, push power-cost protections for consumers and require independent testing of AI systems. Any statement from incoming committee leaders, governors or state utility regulators can move chips, power producers and AI cloud names together, at any hour.
The second risk is oil. Crude just had one of its steepest weeks in years on hopes for US-Iran de-escalation, yet attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have continued. A peace headline or a fresh attack can swing energy stocks several percent before the open.
Market Setup: A Chip Crash, a Dow Hold-Up and Falling Yields
Last week was the worst for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq since June. The S&P 500 finished at 7,376.86, down 2.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579.42, down 3.4%. The Dow held up far better, slipping just 0.9% to 51,285.73, while the Russell 2000 lost 2.1% to 2,754.11.
The damage came in one session. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52% and the Dow lost 3.44%, the steepest daily declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since April 2025. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 12%. Nvidia alone lost close to $450 billion in market value.
Why it happened matters for this week. Investors sold on the idea that a Democratic Congress, plus Democratic wins in data center states like Texas and Georgia, could slow the AI infrastructure build-out. Reuters reported a UBS estimate that construction pauses could put about 30% of planned US data center capacity additions for 2028 at risk. Company news piled on: Qualcomm fell 9.5% on a weak smartphone chip forecast, and Bloomberg reported Micron paused work on a $4.5 billion Taiwan plant after a labor dispute. For the fuller sector breakdown, see our Democratic sweep sector map.
Friday brought only a partial repair. The Nasdaq gained 1.09% and the S&P 500 rose 0.31%, but the Dow fell 0.46%, and the rebound recovered only a small part of Thursday's drop. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge built from S&P 500 option prices, fell 9.2% to 25.58. That's calmer than Thursday, yet still a level where intraday ranges stay wide. Our high-VIX trading playbook covers how to adjust size and stops in this kind of tape.
Bonds told a different story than the jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.86%, down from 4.94% a week earlier, because money rotated from stocks into Treasuries during Thursday's rout. The 2-year yield, which tracks Fed expectations most closely, finished at 4.51%. Strong payrolls pushed both up on Friday, but not enough to undo the week.
Oil had a historic week of its own. Brent crude was on track for a weekly drop of roughly 15%, its steepest percentage fall since 2020, and US crude (WTI) settled near $90, down about 12%. Lower fuel costs help airlines and transports, but they also cut the cash flow outlook for producers such as Occidental, which reports Monday.
Economy and Fed Policy: October CPI, Veterans Day and PPI
The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, but two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, voted for an immediate quarter-point hike. Markets priced about an 80% chance of a December hike before Friday's jobs report, and the payroll beat added to those bets. The next decision is December 9.
Friday's October Employment Situation was the strongest in months. Payrolls rose 165,000 against a 62,000 consensus, August and September were revised up a combined 84,000, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month. The soft spot: the broader U-6 underemployment rate rose to 7.9% as more people worked part time for economic reasons.
Monday: No major US data. Earnings set the tone.
Tuesday, 8:30 a.m.: October CPI. September's report showed headline CPI up 3.7% from a year earlier, with core CPI (which strips out food and energy) up 0.3% on the month for a second straight month and 2.6% for the year. Forecasters such as TD Securities expect core to cool to about 0.2% in October. One twist: because the Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected October 2025 prices during last year's shutdown, most October 2026 indexes have no year-ago value. Expect a monthly change and index levels, but not the usual 12-month inflation rates for most series. Any annual figure you see quoted is an estimate.
Wednesday: Veterans Day. Stocks trade normally, but the bond market is closed, so Treasury yields won't react to midweek news until Thursday.
Thursday, 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims. After close: Cisco and Applied Materials.
Friday, 8:30 a.m.: October PPI. September producer prices rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% from a year earlier, largely on energy. Oil's October pullback could soften the headline, so watch the core measures.
If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher, expect the 2-year yield to jump and December hike odds to firm up, which usually pressures long-duration growth stocks (companies valued on profits far in the future) and the rate-sensitive Russell 2000. A 0.2% or softer core print would ease hike pricing and give chips and small caps room to extend Friday's bounce. Our guide to the 2-year Treasury yield shows how to read that first reaction.
Stocks to Watch This Week
The names below fall into four themes: chip leaders repairing last week's damage, AI infrastructure reports, power and policy, and one special situation. Before the open, pull up each company's news, financials and analyst activity in one place with Trade Ideas' free Stock Info tool, so your plan starts from the latest facts.
How to Execute the Key Levels
Support and resistance levels mark areas to watch, and price reaching one is no reason to act by itself. Wait for price to test a level, then look for confirmation: a 5-minute candle that closes back on the right side of the level after sellers or buyers fail to push through. If you take a trade off that reaction, the logical stop sits on the other side of the level. With the VIX above 25, levels get overshot more often, so give a test a few minutes before you judge it. New to this? Start with our support and resistance basics.
Chip Leaders Repairing the Damage
$NVDA: The Market's AI Risk Gauge After a 9% Day
Setup Difficulty: Moderate (High Liquidity, Wide Post-Crash Ranges)
Key levels · NVDA
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of Thursday's unfilled gap, Nov 4 close (+7.2%) | 200.13 |
| resistance | Bottom of the gap, Thursday's open (+5.1%) | 196.07 |
| resistance | Friday's bounce high, stalled under the gap (+4.4%) | 194.90 |
| close | Friday close | 186.64 |
| support | Thursday's panic low, lowest since late August (-2.8%) | 181.46 |
Read the map from the top. Friday's bounce died at $194.90, just under the $196.07 to $200.13 gap Thursday left behind, and buyers trapped inside that gap are the first sellers any rally meets. A move back into the gap is the real repair signal. The cushion below is thin: Thursday's low sits less than 3% under Friday's close.
$NVDA fell 9.26% on Thursday to $181.60, then bounced to $186.64 on Friday, finishing the week down 8.8%. The stock now sits about 23% below its October 6 high of $243.37. Nvidia has no scheduled catalyst this week, but it's still the stock the whole chip group watches first.
The $181.46 Thursday low is the line that matters. It's the lowest price on the chart since at least late August, and a clean break below it would tell you Friday's bounce was only short covering (traders who bet against the stock buying shares back to close their positions).
At the open, watch whether Nvidia holds above Friday's $185.22 low. If it reclaims $194.90 and holds there on 5-minute closes, that's the first sign of repair, with the $200 area (the November 4 close and the October 30 low) as the next ceiling. If it loses $181.46 on volume, expect pressure across $AMD, $MU and $AMAT too.
For how capex news filters from hyperscalers to chip suppliers, see our AI capex trading framework.
$MU: Memory's Leader After a 22% Week
Setup Difficulty: High Risk / Advanced Only (Daily Ranges Above $50)
Key levels · MU
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of Thursday's unfilled gap, Nov 4 close (+15.3%) | 795.23 |
| resistance | Bottom of the gap, Thursday's open (+9.1%) | 752.69 |
| resistance | Friday's bounce high (+5.0%) | 724.80 |
| close | Friday close | 690.00 |
| support | Thursday's panic low (-5.8%) | 650.00 |
Micron's overhead gap runs from $752.69 to $795.23, 9% to 15% above Friday's close, while Thursday's low sits 5.8% below. In a stock that moved $49 to $112 a day last week, either edge is one session away. That's why share size matters more than stop placement here.
$MU fell 17.5% on Thursday, from $795.23 to $656.39, and lost 22% for the week. Friday's 5.1% bounce to $690.00 barely dented that. The stock is roughly 38% below its September 25 high of $1,108.72.
Two stories hit at once. The sector-wide fear about data center regulation hit memory hardest, since high-bandwidth memory is one of the most AI-dependent products in the chip world. Then Bloomberg reported Micron had paused work on a $4.5 billion Taiwan plant after a labor dispute. Qualcomm's weak forecast added a third angle, since it blamed memory costs for softer smartphone chip demand. The whole memory and storage group sold off with it: SanDisk ($SNDK) fell 22% the same day.
Respect the size of the ranges. Thursday's range was nearly $112, and Friday's was almost $49. A stop that feels tight in percentage terms can still be a large dollar loss, so cut your share size before you widen your stop.
If $MU holds above $650.00 and reclaims $724.80, the Thursday low becomes a defended floor. If $650.00 breaks, there's no recent support on the chart nearby, and the move can run quickly.
$AMD: Does an 11% Bounce Hold?
Setup Difficulty: Moderate to High (Liquid, but Moving 10% a Day)
Key levels · AMD
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of Thursday's unfilled gap, Nov 4 close (+8.8%) | 488.78 |
| resistance | Nov 2 low, broken support now overhead (+3.8%) | 466.07 |
| resistance | Friday's high, inside the gap (+2.4%) | 459.80 |
| resistance | Bottom of the gap, Thursday's open (+0.8%) | 452.50 |
| close | Friday close | 449.04 |
| support | Friday's low, base of the bounce (-3.5%) | 433.30 |
| support | Thursday's panic low (-10.5%) | 402.10 |
AMD's 11% bounce looks strong until you place it on the map. Friday's high pushed into Thursday's gap, but the stock closed back below the gap's $452.50 bottom edge, so the first attempt to reclaim it failed. A close back inside the gap, above $452.50, is the confirmation the bounce still needs.
$AMD dropped 17.26% on Thursday to $404.40, two days after its own earnings report, then jumped 11% on Friday to $449.04. It still finished the week down 11.1%, and it trades about 32% below its October 6 high of $658.52.
The November 2 low of $466.07 is the overhead test. A former low often turns into resistance because buyers who got trapped there use the rally to sell at breakeven.
Watch the first hour of Monday. If $AMD holds above Friday's $433.30 low and pushes through $459.80, Friday's buyers stay in control. If it slips back under $433.30, the gap toward the $402.10 Thursday low opens up. Bounces this sharp after a crash can fade quickly, so let price prove it.
AI Infrastructure Earnings Tests
$AMAT: The First Equipment Read After the Chip Rout (Thursday After Close)
Setup Difficulty: Moderate (High Liquidity, ±10% Implied Earnings Move)
Key levels · AMAT
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of Thursday's unfilled gap, Nov 4 close (+11.0%) | 369.40 |
| resistance | Top of the ±10.4% options-implied earnings range | 367.32 |
| resistance | Bottom of the gap, Thursday's open; Friday stalled at $348.71 (+4.5%) | 347.60 |
| close | Friday close | 332.72 |
| support | Thursday's panic low, lowest since late August (-4.7%) | 316.95 |
| support | Bottom of the ±10.4% options-implied earnings range | 298.12 |
Here's the detail most charts won't show you: the top of Thursday's gap, $369.40, sits just above the $367.32 upper edge of what options are pricing for the report. Even a strong reaction of the size traders expect wouldn't fully refill the gap; that takes a bigger-than-priced move. On the downside, the priced range reaches $298.12, well below Thursday's low.
$AMAT reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday after the close, with a call at 4:30 p.m. Analysts expect earnings of $4.06 a share on revenue of $10.30 billion, which would be about 51% revenue growth from a year earlier. The stock fell 14.7% last week and sits about 39% below its October 2 high of $547.25.
That gap between record expected growth and a crushed stock price is the setup. The report will show whether chipmakers are still ordering equipment at full speed, and management's comments on memory customers and China will matter as much as the quarter itself.
Options price a ±10.4% move, about $35 either way from Friday's close. That's a big swing for an unhedged weekly option, which can lose most of its value even if you guess the direction right but the move falls short of what was priced in.
Until Thursday, $AMAT trades with the chip group. After the report, a gap above $348.71 that holds the first 30 minutes Friday would mean the selloff overshot. A gap below $316.95 would put the stock at its lowest level since at least late August.
$CSCO: A Guidance Test With the Stock at Its Low (Thursday After Close)
Setup Difficulty: Moderate (Deep Liquidity, Overnight Earnings Gap Risk)
Key levels · CSCO
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of Thursday's unfilled gap, Nov 4 close (+10.4%) | 103.61 |
| resistance | Bottom of the gap, Thursday's open (+6.8%) | 100.21 |
| resistance | Friday's high, sellers capped the bounce (+3.9%) | 97.52 |
| close | Friday close | 93.85 |
| support | Friday's low, lowest since late August (-0.5%) | 93.35 |
Cisco closed just 0.5% above its lowest price since late August and never got near Thursday's $100.21 to $103.61 gap. Support this close to the last price is already being tested, so the report will most likely decide it. The last options reading we found (October 27) priced about a ±6.4% move, roughly $6 either way, which on a beat would still stop short of the gap.
$CSCO reports fiscal first-quarter results Thursday after the close, with a call at 4:30 p.m. In August, Cisco guided this quarter to $18.0 billion to $18.2 billion in revenue and $1.32 to $1.34 in non-GAAP earnings per share, a big step up from $14.9 billion in revenue a year earlier. Management also projected about $7.5 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers for fiscal 2027.
The stock isn't acting like a company with that outlook. Cisco fell 10.2% last week and closed at $93.85, its lowest level since at least late August, and it fell 2% on Friday while the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. That kind of relative weakness into a report tells you sellers are still in charge.
The detail to watch is gross margin. Cisco guided non-GAAP gross margin to 65% to 66% and has said memory costs are squeezing product margins. A beat on revenue with a margin miss could still disappoint.
If the stock holds $93.35 before the report, the low is being defended. After the report, a gap that reclaims $97.52 and holds would be the first sign the selloff overshot. A break of $93.35 leaves no nearby support on the recent chart.
$CRWV: Financing and Backlog Under the Microscope (Tuesday After Close)
Setup Difficulty: High Risk / Advanced Only (±21% Implied Move, Heavy Leverage Story)
Key levels · CRWV
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of the ±21.2% options-implied earnings range | 56.24 |
| resistance | Top of Thursday's unfilled gap, Nov 4 close (+4.4%) | 48.42 |
| resistance | Bottom of the gap, Thursday's open (+0.2%) | 46.47 |
| close | Friday close | 46.40 |
| support | Friday's low (-7.1%) | 43.11 |
| support | Thursday's panic low, lowest since late August (-12.5%) | 40.58 |
| support | Bottom of the ±21.2% options-implied earnings range | 36.56 |
CoreWeave closed Friday a few cents under Thursday's gap, and options price a post-earnings range of $36.56 to $56.24. Both edges sit beyond every recent level on the chart, so Wednesday's open is likely to set brand-new reference points. Don't anchor on last week's lines if the stock gaps outside them.
$CRWV reports third-quarter results Tuesday after the close, with a call at 5:00 p.m. The company guided revenue to $3.45 billion to $3.6 billion, and consensus sits near $3.52 billion. CoreWeave also raised its 2026 capital spending plan to $35 billion to $39 billion and guided quarterly interest expense to $860 million to $940 million, up from $640 million.
That interest bill is the heart of the story. CoreWeave borrows heavily to build AI data centers, so the market will judge this report on backlog, financing costs and any change to build plans after the election, more than on the revenue line. The stock closed at $46.40, down 15.4% for the week and about 56% below its September 8 high of $104.59.
Options price a ±21.2% move, roughly $9.85 either way. A move that size can blow through any stop overnight, which is why this is an advanced-only name into the print.
Before the report, $43.11 and $40.58 are the floors. After it, watch whether the first 30 minutes Wednesday hold above or below the opening gap. Gaps on a stock this volatile can fill partway before they find direction.
Power and Policy
$CEG: Power Demand After the Data Center Backlash (Monday Before Open)
Setup Difficulty: Moderate (Liquid, ±8% Implied Earnings Move)
Key levels · CEG
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of the ±8.0% options-implied earnings range | 269.95 |
| resistance | Top of the post-election gap, Nov 3 close (+5.4%) | 263.40 |
| resistance | Friday's high (+1.1%) | 252.72 |
| close | Friday close | 249.95 |
| support | Bottom of the post-election gap, Nov 4 open (-0.5%) | 248.78 |
| support | Thursday's low, lowest since late August (-7.5%) | 231.30 |
| support | Bottom of the ±8.0% options-implied earnings range | 229.95 |
Constellation closed Friday right at the bottom edge of the gap it left the day after the election, $248.78 to $263.40. The priced move reaches just past both ends: up to $269.95, above the whole gap, and down to $229.95, almost exactly Thursday's low. In other words, options are pricing a report that either erases the post-election drop or retests the panic low.
$CEG reports before Monday's open, the first major power producer to speak since the election. The stock fell 6.7% on November 4, the day after the vote, as investors worried that slower data center construction would mean less demand for nuclear power contracts. It hit $231.30 Thursday, then rallied 4.3% Friday to $249.95.
The call matters more than the numbers. Listen for any change in data center contract talks, timelines for new deals, and how management describes the political risk. Options price a ±8.0% move, about $20 either way.
Because the report lands before the open, the first 15 minutes Monday will be the reaction. A gap that holds above $252.72 would say the market sees the backlash as overdone. A gap below $231.30 would put the stock at its lowest level since at least late August.
Special Situation
$TTWO: The Last Earnings Call Before GTA VI (Monday After Close)
Setup Difficulty: Moderate (Liquid, ±9% Implied Move, Headline-Driven)
Key levels · TTWO
November 6, 2026 close| Kind | Level | Price |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | Top of the ±9.1% options-implied earnings range | 234.42 |
| resistance | Friday's high, top of a 13% weekly run (+1.3%) | 217.70 |
| close | Friday close | 214.87 |
| support | Friday's low (-2.4%) | 209.72 |
| support | Bottom of the ±9.1% options-implied earnings range | 195.32 |
| support | Oct 30 close, where the rally started (-11.5%) | 190.17 |
| support | 52-week low, Oct 30 (-14.4%) | 183.86 |
The bottom of the priced range, $195.32, lands near the $190.17 launch point of last week's rally. A move the options market already expects would erase most of that 13% run, which shows how much of the pre-GTA VI move rides on Monday's call.
$TTWO reports fiscal second-quarter results Monday after the close, with a call at 4:30 p.m. It's the company's last scheduled investor update before Grand Theft Auto VI launches on November 19 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox. Take-Two has guided fiscal 2027 net bookings to $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, with GTA VI as the main driver.
The stock did something unusual last week: it rose 13% to $214.87 while the Nasdaq fell 3.4%, bouncing hard off its 52-week low of $183.86 set on October 30. That relative strength makes it one of the few non-defensive names traders bought during the rout.
The binary risk is any change to the launch date, which has already moved twice. Short of that, watch bookings guidance and any comment on pre-order demand. Options price a ±9.1% move, roughly $19.55 either way.
If the stock gaps up and holds above $217.70, the pre-launch run continues. If it gaps down and loses $209.72, the strong week becomes a "sell the news" setup, with the $190.17 October 30 close as the next reference.
Broader Market Radar: Chips, Storage, Software, Energy, Travel and Health Care
Each name below has a real catalyst, but a caveat (thin data, unclear follow-through or extreme volatility) kept it off the priority list.
- $QCOM and $ARM: fell 9.5% and 13.1% on November 5 after earnings, as memory costs weighed on smartphone chip demand. Watch whether either can hold above last week's lows while the chip group repairs.
- $APP: AppLovin rose 31% on November 5 after earnings, against a ±17.5% implied move, one of the few big winners on the worst day of the year. Stocks that rise on crash days can lead the next leg, but a 31% gap also invites profit taking.
- $NET and $TEAM: both beat revenue estimates Thursday night, yet Cloudflare traded 15.7% higher after hours while Atlassian fell 17.4%. Check whether Friday's session confirmed those moves before treating either as a trend.
- $TTD, $RKLB, $ASTS and $LCID: all report Monday after the close, with implied moves of 15.4%, 15.4%, 19.2% and 21.5%. These are momentum names where the overnight gap can exceed any stop.
- $OXY: reports Monday after the close with a ±5.5% implied move, right after one of crude's steepest weekly drops in years.
- $APLD, $CIFR and $IREN: data center operators that fell about 5% each on November 4 on regulatory fears. They react first to any policy headline.
- $MRVL: Marvell fell 28% last week to $141.20 after touching $132.54 on Thursday, and it now trades about 53% below its October 6 high of $301.27. It still carries the overhang of its reported talks to buy Lumentum ($LITE). If the chip group stabilizes, Thursday's low is the line that shows whether sellers are done.
- $SNDK: SanDisk lost 27% for the week, including a 22% drop on Thursday, and sits about 56% below its September 22 high. It trades as a memory and storage proxy, so it tends to move with $MU on every memory headline.
- $ORCL: Oracle hit $109.21 on Friday, its lowest price since at least late August, then closed at $116.10, a 6% recovery off the low. Whether Friday's low holds this week is the tell for seller exhaustion; the stock still fell 11% for the week.
- $XYZ: Block rose 15.3% on November 4 after earnings, against a ±10.3% implied move, one of last week's clearest earnings winners. Watch whether it holds that post-earnings gap while growth stocks stay under pressure.
- $LLY: Eli Lilly touched a record $1,453.00 on Thursday, then reversed to close at the session low, and it finished Friday at $1,354.00. That's below the October 29 close of $1,373.70, so the October 30 gap has filled; the October 29 gap open of $1,332.73 is the next reference.
- $VLO: Valero fell 13% last week to $346.45 and sits about 25% below its October 14 high of $461.52, as crude's plunge hit refiners. It's the clearest example of energy weakness heading into the week, with no scheduled catalyst to break the trend.
- $DAL, $RCL and $ABNB: lower fuel costs are a direct tailwind for airlines and cruise lines, and travel names tend to benefit when oil falls. The risk runs the other way too: a fresh Hormuz attack that lifts crude would hit them first.
Trading Scenarios and Preparation for the Week
Three events will shape most of the week. None of them is predictable, so plan for both outcomes and let the market show you which one is playing out.
Scenario 1: October CPI on Tuesday
A core reading of 0.2% or lower would ease December hike pricing. Watch for the 2-year yield to drop below Friday's 4.51%, small caps to outperform, and chips to extend Friday's bounce. A core reading of 0.3% or higher would push the 2-year higher and firm up hike odds. In that case, expect pressure on high-valuation tech and the Russell 2000, and be careful with the first 5-minute candle, since CPI opens can reverse once the details sink in.
Scenario 2: Does the Chip Floor Hold?
The test is simple. If $NVDA and the semiconductor group hold above their November 5 lows through Tuesday, Thursday looks like a capitulation day (a final burst of panic selling that exhausts sellers). If those lows break, the selloff has a second leg, and the AI regulation story is still being priced in. Watch Nvidia's $181.46 and Micron's $650.00 as the two clearest markers.
Scenario 3: Thursday Night's AI Infrastructure Verdict
Cisco and Applied Materials report within minutes of each other. Strong orders and confident guidance from both would challenge the idea that the AI build-out is slowing, and could lift the whole chip and networking complex Friday. Cautious comments about customer spending or data center timing would confirm last week's fears. A split result (one strong, one weak) usually means sector-wide chop on Friday rather than a clean trend.
Myth and fact
Buying the first green candle after a crash day
Weekly Trader Preparation Checklist
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Nasdaq fall 5.5% on November 5, 2026?
Will the October 2026 CPI report show an annual inflation rate?
Is the stock market open on Veterans Day, November 11, 2026?
Why did Micron stock drop 17% on November 5?
When does Take-Two report earnings, and is GTA 6 still launching November 19?
Will the Fed raise interest rates in December 2026?
Disclaimer
Article Sources
- BLS release calendar, November 2026 - confirms October CPI on November 10, Veterans Day on November 11 and October PPI on November 13.bls.gov
- BLS: impact of the 2025 shutdown on the CPI - explains the missing October 2025 index values.bls.gov
- US Treasury daily par yield curve rates - 2-year and 10-year yields through November 6.home.treasury.gov
- Cisco Q1 fiscal 2027 conference call announcement - report date and call time.newsroom.cisco.com
- Applied Materials Q4 2026 earnings call - call date and time.ir.appliedmaterials.com
- CoreWeave Q3 2026 results announcement - report date and webcast details.investors.coreweave.com






