The Trader’s Playbook: How to Day Trade Earnings Reports

There’s nothing quite like it. You wake up, check the pre-market scanner, and see a stock up 15% (or down 20%) on massive volume. A major company just reported earnings, creating a huge price gap and an incredible day trading opportunity.

Earnings season is a goldmine for day traders. It injects a massive dose of volatility and volume into the market, giving us clean, powerful moves to trade. But it can also be a minefield of false breakouts and brutal reversals for the unprepared.

Over the years, our team has refined its approach to trading earnings down to a simple, repeatable process. It’s not about guessing the report; it’s about reacting to the market’s response. This playbook will give you that process, including two specific setups you can use to trade any earnings report.

The #1 Rule of Trading Earnings

Before we touch a single chart, let’s get our most important rule on the table.

Our team has a non-negotiable, absolute, iron-clad rule: We NEVER hold a stock through its earnings report. It is a pure 50/50 gamble. The risk of a massive gap against you wiping out weeks of hard work is simply not worth it. We are professional traders, and our job is to manage risk, not to gamble on a coin flip.

The real opportunity isn’t in guessing the report; it’s in trading the predictable patterns that emerge the morning after the report is released.

The Playbook Part 1: Pre-Market Prep (7:00 AM – 9:29 AM ET)

The success of an earnings trade is determined before the market even opens. This pre-market analysis is where you find your edge.

1. Analyze the Numbers: Don’t just look at the stock price. Quickly read the headlines. Did they beat on Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Revenue? What was their guidance for the next quarter? Strong guidance is often more important than the past quarter’s results.
2. Assess the Quality of the Gap: Is the stock gapping up into a key resistance level? Or gapping down into major long-term support? A stock gapping into a “brick wall” is a lower-probability trade. We want to see a stock gapping into an area of clean air with no obvious overhead resistance (for a gap up) or underlying support (for a gap down).
3. Identify the Key Pre-Market Levels: This is the most critical step. Watch the stock’s price action between 8:00 AM and 9:30 AM ET. Mark these two levels on your chart:
   • The Pre-Market High: The highest point the stock reaches before the open.
   • The Pre-Market Low: The lowest point the stock reaches before the open. These two levels will become our trigger points for a trade once the market opens at 9:30 AM.

The Playbook Part 2: Two Setups for Trading the Open

Once the bell rings, the price action relative to the pre-market levels will tell us which trade setup to look for. There are generally two high-probability scenarios.

Setup 1: The “Gap and Go” (Continuation)

This is a momentum-based trade. It occurs when a stock gaps up on overwhelmingly positive news (or gaps down on terrible news) and continues in that direction right from the opening bell.

• Signal: The stock opens and quickly breaks above the pre-market high (for a gap up) or below the pre-market low (for a gap down) with strong volume.
• Psychology: The buying (or selling) pressure is so immense that there is no pullback. Any trader who was waiting for a dip to buy is forced to chase the stock higher, adding fuel to the fire.

Setup 2: The “Gap Fill” (Reversal)

This setup occurs when the initial gap is an overreaction. The stock either fails to continue in the direction of the gap or immediately reverses back toward the previous day’s closing price.

• Signal: A stock gaps down, but instead of continuing lower, it finds buyers at the open and breaks above the pre-market high. Or, it gaps up but immediately shows weakness and breaks below the pre-market low.
• Psychology: The gap down was a “buy the news” opportunity, and shorts who piled on in pre-market are now getting squeezed. For a gap up, the good news was “priced in,” and early buyers are taking profits, creating a reversal.

Real Trading Simulations

Let’s see how these playbooks work with two different, realistic scenarios.

Simulation 1: NVDA “Gap and Go”

• The Scenario: NVDA reports blowout earnings and raises guidance significantly. The stock is gapping up 18% in the pre-market.
• Pre-Market Analysis (9:15 AM ET):
  • NVDA is trading in a range between $940 (Pre-Market Low) and $950 (Pre-Market High). The gap is clean, with no major resistance until the $1,000 psychological level. This looks like a prime “Gap and Go” candidate.
• The Trade (9:31 AM ET):
  • The market opens. NVDA consolidates for one minute and then breaks decisively above the $950 pre-market high.
  • Entry: Long 25 shares at $950.50.
  • Stop-Loss: Place the stop below the opening 1-minute candle’s low, at $945.50. Our risk per share is $5.00.
  • Position Sizing: With a max trade risk of $125, our position is $125 / $5.00 = 25 shares.
  • Result: The momentum is huge. The stock rips higher, and we sell half our position at a $10 profit ($960.50) and the rest near the $970 level for a fantastic win.

Simulation 2: TGT “Gap Fill” Reversal

• The Scenario: TGT (Target) reports mixed earnings but provides weak forward guidance. The stock is gapping down 8%.
• Pre-Market Analysis (9:15 AM ET):
  • TGT is trading between $142 (Pre-Market Low) and $144 (Pre-Market High). It gapped down right into a major support level from three months ago. This is a potential “Gap Fill” candidate if buyers step in to defend that support.
• The Trade (9:35 AM ET):
  • The market opens. TGT tries to go lower but is immediately bought up. It spends the first few minutes building a strong base. It then breaks above the $144 pre-market high. This is a sign of a reversal, as the sellers have no more power.
  • Entry: Long 70 shares at $144.10.
  • Stop-Loss: Place the stop below the morning’s consolidation area, at $143.10. Our risk per share is $1.00.
  • Position Sizing: With a max trade risk of $70, our position is $70 / $1.00 = 70 shares.
  • Result: The shorts who entered in the pre-market are now trapped and forced to cover (buy back their shares). This buying pressure pushes the stock up, and we take profits as it moves toward filling the gap near the previous day’s close of $150.

The Bottom Line: Trade the Reaction, Not the Prediction

Successful earnings trading has nothing to do with predicting the numbers and everything to do with a disciplined, patient process.

Do your pre-market homework, identify the key levels, and wait for the market to confirm a direction at the open. By having a clear plan for both continuation and reversal scenarios, you can confidently trade the incredible opportunities that earnings season provides.

FAQ: Trading Earnings Reports